Confidence Interval: Formula, Table & Calculation

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Arpita Srivastava

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In statistics, the confidence interval is basically a range of estimates which can be further dissected into lower bound and upper bound for an unknown parameter.

  • It is used to describe the uncertainty associated with a sample estimate of a population parameter. 
  • Confidence interval (CI) is also known as the degree of confidence, confidence level or confidence coefficient.
  • The interval recorded further is evaluated at a designated confidence level.
  • CI depends on factors such as sample size, the variability in the sample, and the confidence level.
  • In general, confidence intervals exist in the amount of uncertainty within statistical data.
  • A real-life application of CI includes when you need to make decisions regarding the launch of a new product after studying the current market.

Key Terms: Confidence Interval, Confidence Interval Formula, Statistics, Sample Size, Confidence Coefficient, Population, Mean, Standard Deviation


What is Confidence Interval?

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Confidence interval describes the range which is obtained from the sample space that determines the actual value of the unknown parameter. It uses a systematic approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with sample statistics

  • The confidence level generally exhibits a frequency of reasonable confidence intervals.
  • It includes the true value of the unknown parameter. 
  • In simple words, it is the amount of uncertainty existing within statistical grouped data.
  • The higher the value of the confidence level, the wider the confidence interval.

In brief, the confidence level, which is a range of values including a certain degree of confidence, can be expressed as a percentage (%) wherein the population seems to be located between an upper bound and a lower bound.

Confidence Interval Example

Example: For example, it is near impossible to study and apprehend every human in a population, which is why researchers believe in selecting a sample of the whole population as a way to determine the results. Clearly, this means that researchers are only able to evaluate the parameters of a population by the provided set of sample data.

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Confidence Interval Formula

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A confidence level is the proportion of confidence intervals that are known to comprise the real value of the unknown parameter. Fundamentally, the confidence interval can be estimated on the basis of mean and standard deviation. The formula of Confidence Interval (or, CI) is as follows,

\(\overline{\text{X}}\) ± Zα/2 × [ σ / \(\sqrt{n}\) ]

  • Wherein,\(\overline{\text{X}}\) = Mean,
  • Z = Confidence coefficient,
  • α = Confidence level,
  • σ = Standard deviation,
  • N = sample space
NOTE: It is imperative to know that the value following the “±” symbol is actually referred to as the margin of error. Besides, the confidence interval is only known to be appropriate when the population is seemingly on its normal track.

Confidence Interval Table

Here is the Confidence Interval table in brief:

Confidence Level Range

Confidence Coefficient (The Value of Z)

80%

1.282

85%

1.440

90%

1.645

95%

1.960

99%

2.576

99.5%

2.807

99.9%

3.291

Example of Confidence Interval

Example. 30 apples, as a random sample set, was considered from a large part of the population of apples. The mean diameter, after initially estimating the individual diameters, of the sample came out to be 71 millimeters each. The standard deviation of the same is 9 mm. With the information, estimate 80% of the confidence limits of the population of apples for the mean diameter?

Ans. Z = 1.282 for 80% of the confidence limits
As per the given equation: \(\overline{\text{X}}\)=71, s=8, Z=1.440 and n=30
Now, we need to substitute the confidence level formula with the values present here,
x ± Zs\(\sqrt{n}\)
Hence, considering 80% confidence limits, the equation will be as follows:
= 71 ± 1.282 × 9\(\sqrt{30}\)
= 71 ± 1.282 × 49.29…


How to Calculate Confidence Interval?

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Generally, when determining the value associated with confidence Interval, you must follow the procedure detailed below,

  • Before anything, your first step is to determine the number of observations, the mean X, and the standard deviation σ.
  • You need to select the confidence interval completely based on your choice. 
  • From a varied number of options, you can either take 95% or 99%.
  • Now, after considering the confidence interval of your choice, you need to determine the value of Z, parallel to the data demonstrated in the table, as is portrayed beneath.
  • Finally, you need to substitute the values in the formula.
Confidence Interval

Confidence Interval


Things to Remember

  • In frequentist statistics, a confidence interval is an interval which typically contains the parameter being estimated. 
  • It is impossible to study and apprehend every human in a population, so researchers choose a sample of the entire population.
  • As stated prior, the impossibility of the situation led researchers to believe that selecting a sample of the whole population would be the best way to determine the results.
  • It is usually presumed prior to handling the data examination. 
  • The confidence level, at a general range, is considered 95%.

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Sample Questions

Ques. 30 apples, as a random sample set, was considered from a large part of the population of apples. The mean diameter, after initially estimating the individual diameters, of the sample came out to be 91 millimeters each. The standard deviation of the same is 8 mm. With the information, estimate 85% of the confidence limits of the population of apples for the mean diameter? (3 marks)

Ans:  Z = 1.440 for 85% of the confidence limits
As per the given equation: \(\overline{\text{X}}\)=91, s=8, Z=1.440 and n=30
Now, we need to substitute the confidence level formula with the values present here,
x ± Zs\(\sqrt{n}\)
Hence, considering 85% confidence limits, the equation will be as follows:
= 91 ± 1.440 × 8\(\sqrt{30}\)
= 91 ± 1.440 × 85.477…
= 91 ± 2.1

Ques. Determine the confidence interval by considering the confidence level of 90% as c=0.90,\(\overline{\text{X}}\)=11.3, σ=1.5, n=40? (3 marks)

Ans: As per the question, the following data can be gathered,
The Sample mean, based on the equation = \(\overline{\text{X}}\)=11.3
Standard deviation = σ=1.5
Sample size = n=40
Confidence level, c, is considered as = 90%
As we are aware of the population standard deviation and the size that is seemingly larger than 30, then we should use the standard normal (z) distribution to attain the confidence interval.
The z-value, for 90% of confidence level, is = 1.645

\(\text{Confidence Interval} = \text{Sample Mean} \pm ( \text{z - value at 0.90} \times \frac{\text{Standard deviation}}{\sqrt{\text{sample size}}})\)

                                \(= 11.3 \pm (1.645 \times \frac{1.5}{\sqrt{40}})\)

                                \(= (10.910 , 11.690)\)

Ques. Ten scores are acquired from students in an examination, the scores are as follows: 2, 16, 3, 10, 11, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12. Find out the 90% confidence limit for the mean of the whole test data? (3 marks)

Ans: 
Mean of the whole sample =

 \(\frac{2+3+4+6+7+9+10+11+12+16}{10} =\frac{80}{10} = 8\)
The sample standard deviation:
Since, this is a sample, formulae used is = 1n−1∑ni=1(xi−¯x)2, with ¯x=8 and n−1=9
Therefore s =\(\sqrt{\frac{1}{9}(2-8)^2 + (3-8)^2 +(4-8)^2 + (6-8)^2 + (7-8)^2 + (9-8)^2}\)

                   \(=\sqrt{\frac{1}{9}36+25+16+4+1+1+4+9+16+64}\)  

                   \(= \sqrt{\frac{1}{9} \times 176}\)

                   \(= \sqrt{19.555}\)

                   \(= 4.4221 ..\)



90% confidence (Z) = 1.645
As per the answer, 90% of the confidence limits = 1.645

Ques. 46 men are randomly selected with a mean height of 86 inches and standard deviation of 6.2 inches each. Evaluate whether the selected men are tall enough or not? (3 marks)

Ans: The given mean value is = 86
As per the question, Standard Deviation = 6.2 inches
Now, considering the total observations, we get n = 46 men
Therefore, if presuming that the confidence level is 95% = 1.960
Formulae used = \(\overline{\text{X}}\) ± Zα/2 × [ σ / \(\sqrt{n}\) ]
Substituting values, we get:
86 ± 1.960 × [ 6.2 / \(\sqrt{46}\) ]
86 ± 1.960 × [ 6.2 / 6.78]
86 ± 1.960 × 0.914
86 ± 1.79
Hence, the margin of error can be considered as 1.79
Therefore, the selected men are possibly between the height gap of about 84. 21 and 87.79 inches.

Ques. What is Confidence Interval? Mention the table of confidence interval? (3 marks)

Ans: A Confidence Interval (or, CI), in the family of statistics and mathematics, is apparently a broad range of estimates. It can be further broken down into a lower bound and an upper bound for an unknown parameter. It is physically impossible to study every person in the population. It has led researchers to believe in selecting a sample of the whole population as a way to determine the results. In a nutshell, this outlines the idea about researchers being able to estimate the parameters of a population by the provided set of sample data (which clearly is somewhat unknown). Here is the table of confidence interval,

Confidence Level Range

Confidence Coefficient (The Value of Z)

80%

1.282

85%

1.440

90%

1.645

95%

1.960

99%

2.576

99.5%

2.807

99.9%

3.291

Ques. What is the general formula of Confidence Interval? (3 marks)

Ans: The confidence level is known to exhibit a frequency of reasonable confidence intervals, which comprises the upper and lower bounds, that includes the true value of the unknown parameter. It can be estimated on the basis of mean and standard deviation. The formula of Confidence Interval (or, CI) is as follows,
\(\overline{\text{X}}\) ± Zα/2 × [ σ / \(\sqrt{n}\)]
Wherein, \(\overline{\text{X}}\) = Mean,
Z = Confidence coefficient,
α = Confidence level,
σ = Standard deviation,
N = sample space,
Whereby, it is significant to know that the value following the “±” symbol is actually referred to as the margin of error.

Ques. Is confidence interval always accurate? State relevant reasons if not? (3 marks)

Ans: It often becomes cumbersome to produce sample confidence intervals for a largely dispersed data, which gradually led researchers to only accept a sample out of the whole to generate accurate results.

  • Confidence Interval is usually only accurate if considering normal distribution of the population.
  • There are cases that defeat the accuracy. In brief, if the estimation has to be about a large sample from other types of population distributions, then the central limit theorem is utilized for conducting further accuracy of the interval sample set.

Ques. What is the difference between confidence interval and confidence label? (3 marks)

Ans. The difference between confidence interval and confidence label are as follows:

Confidence Interval Confidence Label
A confidence interval represents the range of values from sample data that include the true unknown parameter of a population. The confidence level indicates the degree of confidence where the true parameter falls within the required confidence interval.
It is expressed in lower and upper bound. It is expressed in percentage.
It represent the range in which true parameter will fall. It represent the level of confidence being made.

Ques. 25 apples, as a random sample set, was considered from a large part of the population of apples. The mean diameter, after initially estimating the individual diameters, of the sample came out to be 61 millimeters each. The standard deviation of the same is 10 mm. With the information, estimate 85% of the confidence limits of the population of apples for the mean diameter? (3 marks)

Ans:  Z = 1.440 for 85% of the confidence limits
As per the given equation: \(\overline{\text{X}}\)=61, s=8, Z=1.440 and n=25
Now, we need to substitute the confidence level formula with the values present here,
x ± Zs\(\sqrt{n}\)
Hence, considering 85% confidence limits, the equation will be as follows:
= 61 ± 1.440 × 10\(\sqrt{25}\)
= 61 ± 1.440 × 50

Ques. 36 men are randomly selected with a mean height of 86 inches and standard deviation of 7.2 inches each. Evaluate whether the selected men are tall enough or not? (3 marks)

Ans: The given mean value is = 96
As per the question, Standard Deviation = 7.2 inches
Now, considering the total observations, we get n = 36 men
Therefore, if presuming that the confidence level is 95% = 1.960
Formulae used = \(\overline{\text{X}}\) ± Zα/2 × [ σ / \(\sqrt{n}\) ]
Substituting values, we get:
96 ± 1.960 × [ 7.2 / \(\sqrt{36}\) ]
96 ± 1.960 × [ 7.2 / 6]
96 ± 1.960 × 1.2
96 ± 2.35
Hence, the margin of error can be considered as 2.35
Therefore, the selected men are possibly between the height gap of about 98.352 and 93.65 inches.

Ques. What do you mean by 95% confidence interval? (2 marks)

Ans. A range that includes an upper and lower value derived from a sample is known as the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the mean. This range denotes potential mean values because the actual population mean is unknown.


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CBSE CLASS XII Related Questions

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      An NGO organises a charity event in which they decide to distribute woollen caps to protect children from winter. The caps to be distributed are in three separate boxes, Box I has 30 red caps, Box II has 20 red and 10 green caps, and Box III has 30 green caps. The probability that a Box i is selected and a cap picked out is i/6, where i = 1, 2, 3.  
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              • 5.
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                The principal value of \[ \sec^{-1}(\sqrt{2})+2\csc^{-1}(-2) \] is:

                  • \(-\frac{\pi}{2}\)
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